Return to Create a Validation Parameter Set

Last Modified: 2024-08-27 10:50:10.055

HEC-HMS Version

HEC-HMS version 4.12 was used to create this tutorial. You will need to use HEC-HMS version 4.12, or newer, to open the project files.

Project Files

If you are continuing from Create a Validation Parameter Set, you may continue to use your current project files. Otherwise download the initial files here:

Russian_River.zip

  1. Open the Deficit_Constant_1995 basin model.
  2. Use the Deficit and Constant global editor to enter the constant loss parameters from the model calibration effort.

  3. Run the Jan1995 simulation.

    Initial Condition

    Generally, initial condition will vary between simulation events. Initial conditions are based on the soil moisture at the beginning of the model simulation (and water in the channel network based on past precipitation-runoff). The four events in this example occurred in January and February and had similar conditions at the beginning of the simulation windows. Initial conditions from calibration events are not necessarily transferred directly over to validation events, because validation events might have different antecedent conditions.  

  4. In a spreadsheet, document, or notepad, report results for each of the observation locations: CV Dam Inflow, Ukiah Gage, Hopland Gage, Cloverdale Gage, Healdsburg Gage, and Guerneville Gage.

    Location

    NSE

    Performance Rating

    Simulated Peak (cfs)

    Observed Peak (cfs)

    CV Dam Inflow





    Ukiah Gage





    Hopland Gage





    Cloverdale Gage





    Healdsburg Gage





    Guerneville Gage





    The table below shows results for the 1995 event, run with the validation parameter set, at each of the observation locations: CV Dam Inflow, Ukiah Gage, Hopland Gage, Cloverdale Gage, Healdsburg Gage, and Guerneville Gage.

    Location

    NSE

    Performance Rating

    Simulated Peak (cfs)

    Observed Peak (cfs)

    CV Dam Inflow

    0.815

    Very Good

    8,646

    8,780

    Ukiah Gage

    0.911

    Very Good

    12,108

    12,290

    Hopland Gage

    0.878

    Very Good

    20,239

    27,600

    Cloverdale Gage

    0.680

    Very Good

    27,817

    39,400

    Healdsburg Gage

    0.800

    Very Good

    56,319

    73,000

    Guerneville Gage

    0.520

    Satisfactory

    74,577

    93,900

Question: Is your model sufficient for the study? If not, what should you do to improve confidence in the model?

Results may vary. In any case, more calibration and validation events will reduce uncertainty in the model. The amount of calibration and validation events in your study may vary depending on the amount of events that you have quality data for, or, time and budget available to execute the project. In this example, we calibrated to three events and validated to one event. The results are good but overall we would benefit from more calibration and validation events. In the actual study, the 1986, 1995, 1997, and 2006 events were used for model calibration. The January 1997 calibration event was not used to form the validation parameter set because precipitation data was found to be inadequate. The model was validated against the 1% AEP storm.


Project Files

Download the final project files here:

Russian_River_final.zip

This concludes the Calibrating and Validating a Single Event Model tutorial.