Task 2 Developing the Datasets used to Test the Machine Learning Model

The testing dataset includes predictor variable for the 11 test events and HEC-HMS parameter adjustment factors. We will compare the adjustment factors from the machine learning model to those determine through manual calibration.

HEC-HMS Model Adjustment Factors and Results for the Test Events

The following tables contain the HEC-HMS adjustment factors from the test events, these were set through manual calibration. Just like the training events, the performance metrics showed good model prediction.

Initial Baseflow Scale Factor
Zones	1/2/1997	1/22/1997	11/12/2001	1/1/2002	12/17/2002	12/27/2002	5/20/2005	12/21/2005	2/24/2008	2/18/2009	2/23/2009
Lake Mendocino	0.6	0.31	0.1	0.57	0.36	0.3	0.45	0.12	0.27	0.8	0.5
Hopland	0.24	0.26	0.08	0.2	0.08	0.27	0.15	0.08	0.22	0.3	0.24
Guerneville	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.09	0.02	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.06	0.06
Lake Sonoma	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.45	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5

Initial Moisture Deficit Scale Factor
Zones	1/2/1997	1/22/1997	11/12/2001	1/1/2002	12/17/2002	12/27/2002	5/20/2005	12/21/2005	2/24/2008	2/18/2009	2/23/2009
Lake Mendocino	0.3	0.4	3.6	0.0	2.6	0.4	1.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.8
Hopland	0.3	0.4	4.0	0.0	3.0	0.2	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.3	1.0
Guerneville	0.2	0.1	3.4	0.0	3.0	0.5	1.0	1.0	0.4	0.4	0.8
Lake Sonoma	0.2	0.4	3.8	0.2	3.0	1.0	0.5	1.2	0.3	0.4	0.8

Constant Loss Rate Scale Factor
Zones	1/2/1997	1/22/1997	11/12/2001	1/1/2002	12/17/2002	12/27/2002	5/20/2005	12/21/2005	2/24/2008	2/18/2009	2/23/2009
Lake Mendocino	0.4	0.3	0.8	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	1.0
Hopland	0.5	2.0	1.8	0.5	1.9	0.5	2.2	1.6	2.0	1.4	1.5
Guerneville	0.7	0.8	1.5	0.5	1.0	1.5	1.2	1.8	2.0	1.5	0.9
Lake Sonoma	0.2	1.6	2.1	0.5	0.9	1.4	2.0	1.5	2.0	1.3	1.6

Groundwater 1 Fraction Scale Factor
Zones	1/2/1997	1/22/1997	11/12/2001	1/1/2002	12/17/2002	12/27/2002	5/20/2005	12/21/2005	2/24/2008	2/18/2009	2/23/2009
Lake Mendocino	0.8	0.8	0.5	1.0	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.8
Hopland	1.0	0.8	0.6	1.0	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.6	0.8
Guerneville	1.0	0.8	0.5	1.0	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.8
Lake Sonoma	1.0	0.8	0.5	1.0	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.7

Groundwater 2 Fraction Scale Factor
Zones	1/2/1997	1/22/1997	11/12/2001	1/1/2002	12/17/2002	12/27/2002	5/20/2005	12/21/2005	2/24/2008	2/18/2009	2/23/2009
Lake Mendocino	1.2	1.3	0.6	1.2	0.7	0.9	0.7	1.1	0.8	1.0	1.1
Hopland	0.9	1.0	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.6	1.0
Guerneville	1.0	1.0	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.6	1.0
Lake Sonoma	1.1	1.0	0.6	1.0	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.6	1.0

Predictor Variable for the Test Events

The following table contains the predictor variables used for the test events.

Event Date	Simulation Start Date	3-Day Watershed Total Precipitation	7-Day Watershed Total Precipitation	14-Day Watershed Total Precipitation	30-Day Watershed Total Precipitation	60-Day Watershed Total Precipitation	90-Day Watershed Total Precipitation	120-Day Watershed Total Precipitation	3-Day Watershed Average Temperature	7-Day Watershed Average Temperature	14-Day Watershed Average Temperature	30-Day Watershed Average Temperature	1-Day Average Flow at Lake Sonoma	1-Day Average Flow at Calpella	1-Day Average Flow at Guerneville	1-Day Average Flow at Hopland	7-Day Average Flow at Lake Sonoma	7-Day Average Flow at Calpella	7-Day Average Flow at Guerneville	7-Day Average Flow at Hopland
Event Date	Simulation Start Date	In	In	In	In	In	In	In	DEG F	DEG F	DEG F	DEG F	cfs	cfs	cfs	cfs	cfs	cfs	cfs	cfs
2-Jan-97	12/28/1996	1.57	2.66	3.09	9.68	14.54	14.76	14.78	47.45	45.70	43.71	46.62	1586	1040	12045	3662	847	873	5977	2039
22-Jan-97	1/20/1997	0.00	0.04	0.04	12.97	20.83	24.88	25.06	47.82	43.75	43.13	46.06	485	415	2472	1057	473	392	4675	1139
12-Nov-01	11/8/2001	0.00	0.00	1.13	1.13	1.15	1.15	1.15	51.77	53.51	55.40	58.82	55	169	122	89	56	167	171	92
1-Jan-02	12/29/2001	0.92	1.40	3.50	8.82	17.01	17.27	17.28	49.62	47.19	46.20	46.35	1187	696	6281	1376	920	827	8202	2801
17-Dec-02	12/12/2002	0.89	0.96	0.96	1.02	5.09	5.09	5.09	50.96	48.79	47.89	49.86	65	71	385	117	72	70	247	116
27-Dec-02	12/25/2002	0.00	2.66	15.04	15.33	19.46	19.46	19.46	40.72	42.42	46.63	47.64	534	464	6369	1148	1499	1294	14269	3635
20-May-05	5/17/2005	0.02	0.02	2.20	2.21	8.96	12.86	14.98	61.90	59.83	57.77	56.29	206	212	1197	226	163	252	1964	318
21-Dec-05	12/18/2005	0.27	0.27	0.27	4.64	7.92	8.13	8.13	39.42	39.51	40.88	43.80	109	41	354	169	85	73	341	178
24-Feb-08	2/22/2008	0.22	0.22	0.22	7.48	15.79	21.18	21.66	47.58	47.29	48.08	45.19	246	158	389	376	193	164	1337	484
18-Feb-09	2/14/2009	0.58	1.01	2.47	2.47	5.26	5.90	10.16	40.86	41.22	44.66	45.34	501	359	1173	409	199	141	592	200
23-Feb-09	2/21/2009	0.02	4.22	5.23	6.69	8.58	10.12	14.38	49.44	46.19	43.71	45.51	297	156	3343	448	1177	593	6695	1417