Return to Create a Validation Parameter Set

Last Modified: 2025-06-20 10:21:17.239

HEC-HMS Version

HEC-HMS version 4.12 was used to create this tutorial. You will need to use HEC-HMS version 4.12, or newer, to open the project files.

Project Files

If you are continuing from Create a Validation Parameter Set, you may continue to use your current project files. Otherwise download the initial files here:

Russian_River.zip

  1. Open the Deficit_Constant_1995 basin model.
  2. Use the Deficit and Constant global editor to enter the constant loss parameters from the model calibration effort.
  3. Run the Jan1995 simulation.

    Initial Condition

    Generally, initial conditions will vary between simulation events. For instance, the initial moisture deficit at the start of the a simulation depends upon past precipitation and temperature, amongst other considerations. The four events in this example occurred in January and February and had similar conditions at the beginning of the simulation windows. Initial conditions from calibration events are not necessarily transferred directly over to validation events because validation events might have different antecedent conditions.

  4. In a spreadsheet, document, or text file, report results for each of the observation locations: CV Dam Inflow, Ukiah Gage, Hopland Gage, Cloverdale Gage, Healdsburg Gage, and Guerneville Gage.

    Location

    NSE

    Performance Rating

    Simulated Peak (cfs)

    Observed Peak (cfs)

    CV Dam Inflow





    Ukiah Gage





    Hopland Gage





    Cloverdale Gage





    Healdsburg Gage





    Guerneville Gage





    The table below shows results for the 1995 event, run with the validation parameter set, at each of the observation locations: CV Dam Inflow, Ukiah Gage, Hopland Gage, Cloverdale Gage, Healdsburg Gage, and Guerneville Gage.

    Location

    NSE

    Performance Rating

    Simulated Peak (cfs)

    Observed Peak (cfs)

    CV Dam Inflow

    0.815

    Very Good

    8,646

    8,780

    Ukiah Gage

    0.911

    Very Good

    12,108

    12,290

    Hopland Gage

    0.878

    Very Good

    20,239

    27,600

    Cloverdale Gage

    0.680

    Very Good

    27,817

    39,400

    Healdsburg Gage

    0.800

    Very Good

    56,319

    73,000

    Guerneville Gage

    0.520

    Satisfactory

    74,577

    93,900

Question: Is your model sufficiently accurate for the study? If not, what should you do to improve confidence in the model?

Results may vary. Typically, using additional calibration and validation events will improve performance. However, the number of calibration and validation events used within an actual study will depend upon the available time and budget.  Also, data considerations (e.g., where, when, and how many accurate observations are available for use?) will dictate how many events can be used for model calibration and validation. In this example, three events were used for model calibration and one event was used for model validation.

The results that were obtained are acceptable. However, the predictive power of the model could be improved by using additional calibration and validation events. In the actual study, the 1986, 1995, 1997, and 2006 events were used for model calibration. The January 1997 calibration event was not used to form the validation parameter set because precipitation data was found to be inadequate.


Project Files

Download the final project files here:

Russian_River_final.zip

This concludes the Calibrating and Validating a Single Event Model tutorial.