A zip file containing all the lecture slides on this page can be found here: 2025_Statistical_Methods_in_Hydrology_Lectures.zip

AGENDA, Statistical Methods in Hydrology, April 2025:  2025 Agenda page

TopicLinksPowerPoint and Other Files
Lecture 1: Introduction to Probability, Statistics, and Distributions

Lecture will be given live

Basics Exercises, Workshop 1.2 (included in lecture period)

Supplementary: Basic Probability and Statistics Playlist

L1.1 Basic Probability and Statistics sm 2025.pptx

backup: recorded lecture playlist

Workshop 1: R/RStudio Crash Course
  1. Installing and Configuring R and RStudio (Configuring CRAN Mirror)
  2. Introduction to R
  3. Introduction to RStudio
  4. R/RStudio Crash Course Workshop

Supplementary material:

Lecture 2: Exploratory Data Analysis

Key Takeaways (Watch First)

  1. Exploratory Data Analysis Pt I (Data Types and Summary Statistics) (Video duration 11:53)
  2. Exploratory Data Analysis Pt II (Visualization) (20:25)
  3. Exploratory Data Analysis Pt III (Analysis Questions) (4:36)

Exploratory Data Analysis Playlist

L1.2 Exploratory Data Analysis 2023.pptx

Supplementary material:

Lecture 3: Parametric Modeling
  1. Introduction to Parametric Modeling (7:35)
  2. Developing a Representative Data Set (9:51)
  3. Selecting a Model (9:01)
  4. Model Visualization and Goodness of Fit Tests (6:42)
  5. Sources of Model Uncertainty and Model Combinations (9:39)

Parametric Modeling Playlist

L3_Parametric_Modeling_2025.pptx

Lecture 4: Time Series Analysis

recommend watching these videos at speed 1.25

  1. Analyzing Time Series 1 (20:32)          
  2. Analyzing Time Series 2 (24:22)          
  3. Analyzing Time Series 3 (11:22)          
  4. Analyzing Time Series 4 (6:38)

Time Series Analysis Playlist

L1.5 Time Series Analysis 2023.pptx
Workshop 2: Exploratory Data Analysis
  1. Task 1. Introduction to Exploratory Data Analysis
  2. Task 2. Getting Started in R
  3. Task 3. Compute Summary Statistics
  4. Task 4. Data Visualization
  5. Task 5. Workshop Questions

Lecture 5: Introduction to HEC-SSP
  1. Part 1: Overview (4:16)
  2. Part 2: USGS Data Import and Map Layers (14:58)
  3. Part 3: HEC-DSS (6:36)
  4. Part 4: Excel and DSS Data Import and Filtering Data (5:27)
  5. Part 5: Analysis Types (10:10)
  6. Part 6: Demo of Bulletin 17 and Duration Analyses (9:16)
  7. Part 7: Future of SSP and Summary (1:08)

Introduction to HEC-SSP Playlist

L5 Introduction to HEC-SSP 2025.pptx
Workshop 3: Introduction to HEC-SSP

Introduction to HEC-SSP

  1. Task 1. Create a new HEC-SSP Study, Import Data, and Visualize Multiple Data Sets
  2. Task 2. Create and Parameterize a Bulletin 17 Analysis
  3. Task 3. Create and Parameterize a General Frequency Analysis
  4. Task 4. Create and Parameterize a Duration Analysis

Optional, if time allows:


Workshop 4: Parametric Modeling

Parametric Modeling Introduction

  1. Task 1. Create a new HEC-SSP Study and Import Multiple Data Sets
  2. Task 2. Analyze the Data
  3. Task 3. Fit and Compare Multiple Models to the Winter Season 3-day Precipitation Time Series
  4. Task 4. Fit and Compare Multiple Models to the All-Season SWE Time Series
  5. Task 5. Compute a Duration Analysis Using the SWE Time Series and Estimate the Required Information

Optional, if time allows:


Lecture 6: Bulletin 17B, 17C and the Expected Moments Algorithm
  1. Bulletins 17B and 17C 1 (26:07)
  2. Bulletins 17B and 17C 2 (16:53)
  3. Bulletins 17B and 17C 3 (12:49)
  4. Bulletins 17B and 17C 4 (10:45)

Bulletin 17B and 17C Playlist

L2.4 Flood Frequency Guidance- Bulletins 17B and 17C 2023.pptx
Lecture 7: Monte Carlo Simulation

recommend watching these videos at speed 1.25

  1. Monte Carlo 1 (15:48)        
  2. Monte Carlo 2 (15:38)         
  3. Monte Carlo 3 (14:56)

Monte Carlo Simulation Playlist

L3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation 2023.pptx
Demo 1: Bulletin 17C Analysis in HEC-SSPLive demo
Workshop 5: Bulletin 17C and EMA in HEC-SSP

Using Bulletin 17C Methodology within HEC-SSP Introduction

  1. Task 1. Create a New HEC-SSP Project and Import Data
  2. Task 2. Bulletin 17C | Systematic Record
  3. Task 3. Bulletin 17C | Systematic Record + Historical Information
  4. Task 4. Bulletin 17C | Systematic Record + Historical Information + Paleoflood Information

Optional, if time allows:


Demo 2: Monte Carlo Simulation

Live Group Exercises

Monte Carlo simulation Exercises


Lecture 8: Extreme Value Theory

Key Takeaways (Watch First)

  1. Extreme Value Theory Pt I (Introduction) (3:28)
  2. Extreme Value Theory Pt II (Order Statistics) (11:41)
  3. Extreme Value Theory Pt III (First Extreme Value Theorem) (13:53)
  4. Extreme Value Theory Pt IV (Second Extreme Value Theorem) (11:04)

Extreme Value Theory Playlist

L3.5 Extreme Value Theory 2023.pptx
Workshop 6: Extreme Value Theory
  1. Introduction to the Extreme Value Theory Workshop
  2. Task 1: Heterogeneous Sample
  3. Task 2: Homogeneous Samples
  4. Task 3: Mixed Population Analysis

Lecture 9: Uncertainty in Probability Estimates

recommend watching these videos at speed 1.25

  1. Uncertainty in Frequency Estimates 1 (20:33)        
  2. Uncertainty in Frequency Estimates 2 (22:27)         
  3. Uncertainty in Frequency Estimates 3 (20:50)
  4. not included

    Uncertainty in Frequency Estimates Playlist


L3.2 Uncertainty in Frequency Estimates 2023.pptx

Optional Workshop: uncertainty workshop

Lecture 10: Regional/Precipitation Frequency Analysis

  1. RPFA Part I: Introduction to Regional Frequency Analysis (9:13)
  2. RPFA Part II: Introduction to Linear Moments (7:23)
  3. RPFA Part III: Methods of Regionalization (9:51)
  4. RPFA Part IV: Framework for Regional Frequency Analysis (20:26)
  5. RPFA Part V: Regional Frequency Analysis Applications (only need to watch the first section up to 8:05, remaining sections are optional)

Regional Precipitation Frequency Analysis Playlist

Regional Precipitation Frequency Analysis 2025.pptx

Supplementary material:

Index Flood Regionalization Playlist

Precipitation Frequency Analysis Playlist

Willamette Basin Precipitation-Frequency Report

Workshop 7: Peaks Over Threshold
  1. Peaks Over Threshold Analysis: Flood Separation and Threshold Choice
  2. Task 1. Import Data and Create a Peaks Over Threshold Analysis
  3. Task 2. Investigate Threshold Sensitivity
  4. Task 3. Investigate Separation Criteria

Supplementary material:

Workshop 8: Regional Precipitation Frequency Analysis
  1. Introduction to Regional Precipitation Frequency Analysis Using R Workshop
  2. Task 1: Data
  3. Task 2: Regional Frequency Analysis

Optional, if time allows

  1. Bonus Task: Quality Control Investigation

Lecture 11: Multivariate Analysis

Key Takeaways (Watch First)

  1. Multivariate Analysis Pt I (Marginal, Conditional, and Joint Probability) (17:15)
  2. Multivariate Analysis Pt II (Correlation) (7:32)
  3. Multivariate Analysis Pt III (Joint Probability Distributions and Copulas) (12:15)

Multivariate Analysis Playlist

L4.2 Multivariate Analysis 2023.pptx
Demo 3: Multivariate Analysis

Live R Demo

correlation_demo_notebook.Rmd


Lecture 12: Coincident Frequency Analysis/Monte Carlo Joint Distribution

recommend watching these videos at speed 1.25

  1. Coincident Frequency 1 (14:10)        
  2. Coincident Frequency 2 (24:51)      
  3. Coincident Frequency 3 (13:03)

Coincident Frequency Playlist

L4.3 coincident frequency 2023.pptx
Workshop 9: Coincident Frequency
  1. Task 1 - Coincident Frequency Analysis in HEC-SSP
  2. Task 2 - Coincident Frequency by Monte Carlo Simulation

Lecture 13: Simple Linear Regression
  1. Linear Regression Pt I (What Is Linear Regression?) (9:05)
  2. Linear Regression Pt II (Constructing a Linear Regression Model) (7:34)
  3. Linear Regression Pt III (Checking Assumptions) (9:04)
  4. Linear Regression Pt IV (Making Predictions) (10:00)

Linear Regression Playlist

L4.5 Linear Regression 2023.pptx
Lecture 14: Future of Flood Risk Data (FFRD) Application
  1. Future of Flood Risk Data Application: Part 1 (6:12)
  2. Future of Flood Risk Data Application: Part 2 (10:30)
  3. Future of Flood Risk Data Application: Part 3 (5:13)
  4. Future of Flood Risk Data Application: Part 4 (8:16)

Future of Flood Risk Data Application Playlist

L14_FFRD_Application.pptx

Workshop 10: Simple Linear Regression

Linear Regression Using R


Lecture 15: Multiple Linear Regression

Key Takeaways (Watch First)

  1. Multiple Linear Regression Pt I (Extending the Linear Model) (9:07)
  2. Multiple Linear Regression Pt II (Additional Considerations for Multiple Regression) (12:53)

Multiple Linear Regression Playlist

L5.1 Multiple Linear Regression 2023.pptx
Workshop 11: Multiple Linear Regression
  1. Introduction to the Multiple Linear Regression Using R Workshop
  2. Phase 1: Data Exploration Using R
  3. Phase 2: Predictor Selection Using R
  4. Phase 3: Model Construction Using R
  5. Phase 4: Checking Assumptions Using R

Lecture 16: CA DWR Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD) Regression Application
  1. CA DWR Division of Safety of Dams Regression Application: Part 1 (4:55)
  2. CA DWR Division of Safety of Dams Regression Application: Part 2 (8:01)
  3. CA DWR Division of Safety of Dams Regression Application: Part 3 (6:32)
  4. CA DWR Division of Safety of Dams Regression Application: Part 4 (4:06)

CA DWR Division of Safety of Dams Regression Application Playlist

L16_DSOD_Application.pptx